A look at Big Plays and Turnover Margin

A few months ago I was reading an article at www.xandolabs.com and I came across this quote.

"according to Mike Eayrs, Head of Research and Development for the NFL’s Green Bay Packers, over the last 30+ years in the NFL, the distance of 12 or more yards on runs and 16 or more yards for passes are the minimum distance needed to trigger a dramatic increase in scoring probability. When these distances are achieved on a run or a pass they are labeled Explosive Plays. As you’ll see, most QB decision making structures on pass plays hinder explosive opportunities.
In that same timeframe, the NFL team with a positive turnover ratio and more explosive plays (You get more than you give up) win 91% of the time! Lesson learned: We need more explosive plays in our offense."

When I read that quote I was intrigued and wondered if the same stat would hold true here in Sweden. The study of "big plays and winning percentage" is not really new. I remember working with Tony DeMeo at Washburn University and winning the "big play" battle was one thing we always wanted to do. According to Eayrs here, if you can win the big play battle and the turnover margin, you would win 91% of the time.
Well, now that I have time on my hands...what that really means is that I have taken the time when my daughter naps in the afternoon, or when the family is all in bed, and checked the stats from the Super Series games here in Sweden to do my own little study and see what it looks like in regards to 30+ years of research in the NFL.

Now, please keep in mind that I have only gone through the stats that are available to look at on-line. As of today, I have gone through a total of 12 games. I am missing two because there was no play-by-play stats available and I haven't taken the time to go back and watch the archived game film (Kristianstad Predators at Tyresö Royal Crowns & AJ vs TRC). I also have not seen stats of the Predators upset over the Carlstad Crusaders from last weekend or STU Northside Bulls win over Stockholm Mean Machine.

Here's how it broke down:

• The team that has produced more big plays on offense (Runs of 12+ or Passes of 16+) has won 10 of the 12 games.
• In the one game that the big plays were tied,  the winning team won the turover margin.
• In the one game (TRC vs 86ers) where the losing team actually had more big plays than the winning team (TRC=6 and 86ers=3) the 86ers won the turnover battle plus scored a TD with special teams (blocked punt)
• In looking at strictly turnover margin there were 5 games where the turnover margin was tied. In those 5 games the winning team had more big plays in 4 of the wins and a score on a turnover in the other.

If you break down the number big plays made vs the number of big plays given up it looks like this (please keep in mind that I do not have all the stats from all the games, but everything is based on the information available):

• CC  has made 28 and given up 12 (in 3 games)
• TRC has made 18 and given up 10 (in 3 games)
• ÖBK has made 30 and given up 30 (in 4 games)
• 86ers have made 33 and given up 25 (in 3 games)
• STU has made 15 and given up 24 (in 3 games)
• KP has made 12 and given up 16 (in 3 games)
• SMM has made 5 and given up 18 (in 3 games)
• AJ has made 3 and given up 4 (in 1 game)

So, that is where it breaks down in Sweden as of today. Interesting. It would be great to have all the stats to check out, but that will most likely not happen. But, based on what we see here, it does appear that to win games, it is important to win the big play battle and the turnover margin. Offensive coaches need to find ways to break off that big run or get the ball downfield on a pass play, while Defensive coaches need to find a way to stop the big play and create turnovers. 

One area that is also big in regards to Defense is scoring off a turnover.  Also, don't forget the fact that the team that has scored on special teams has yet to lose a game (again based on the stats that I have)

So that wraps up another blog update and my daughter is up and running around so I need to get back to the important part of life. To all of thos out there in the Football world around the world, keep up the good work and good luck!!

(dang it, smells like I have to go and change a diaper!!)